Canadiens vs Knights odds and probability

Montreal Canadiens

It’s been a long, long time since the Habs have proudly hoisted the cup over their heads at the center of the rink. The last time it happened was way back during the 1992-1993 season.

I think I was firmly seated on my best friend’s 1970’s style kitchen chair facing off with him on the Sega Genesis playing NHL 93. Mark Messier was my favourite player when I was that age, so I was most likely playing as the New York Rangers …If not, I was pretending to be Mario Lemieux and facing off against Chris as the Pittsburgh Penguins.

I guess I just wasn’t a Guy Carbonneau fan. Chris was, though. I still remember sitting there on those weird yellow and green flower print padded vinyl kitchen chairs. Then, one day I was really feeling it, and I beat Chris and his Habs over and over … until He lost his temper and punched the floor so hard he broke his hand … he sucked for months after that, trying to play with a cast on his right hand.

It’s crazy to think that it’s been nearly 30 years since the Habs have set skates on the ice during the Stanely Cup Finals.

Will they make finally make it past the conference finals and skate out to play in the finals?

Habs Betting Odds for the Cup
Unfortunately, oddsmakers found at online betting Canada sites and in Vegas only give the Habs about a nine percent chance of netting more goals than the Las Vegas Golden Knights and then winning the cup.
The Stanley Cup Odds —as of June 12:
● Las Vegas Golden Knights +125
● Tampa Bay Lightning +150
● New York Islanders +600
● Montreal Canadiens +1000

So, this implies that the Golden Knights are the golden boys as we move deeper into the playoffs. They have a 44.4 percent implied probability of winning it all. According to the bookmaker’s odds, the Tampa Bay Lightning are not far behind at 40 percent, and the boys from New York are a little over 14 percent.

But for Habs fans, it gets worse. The Montreal Canadiens are getting slighted in their matchup against the Golden Knights. Canada’s favourite bookmakers list the Habs as 4/1 underdogs against the Golden Knights. In fact, the Knights are -600, meaning you have to lay 600 dollars with the hopes of winning 100.

These odds are crazy to me.

Why? You ask.

Because in the six times that the Habs and Knights have collided, Montreal has beaten Las Vegas on five occasions. So, is this because the Habs are down two third-string right defensemen, two third-string left wingers, and a third-string winger-center? I could see that being an issue after a couple of games … but the Knights are favoured -280 in game one.

Stats for Game 1 and Beyond
● The Knights score 3.51 goals per game at home
● The Habs scored 2.82 goals per game on the road
● The Knights slap 33.23 shots per game at home
● The Habs slap 30.15 shots per game on the road
● The Knights allow 2.17 pucks to be netted per game at home
● The Habs allow 2.85 netted pucks on the road

So, we can see that the Knights are about a puck per game better on the home versus away stats. But that just doesn’t justify such heavy chalk against a team that has beaten the Golden Knights every time since 2018.

Of the last six meetings, the Habs have beaten the Knights five times and put up at least three goals in each of those games. They lost one away game back on February 17th of 2018, 3-6, but the rest were 5-4, 5-4, 4-3, 5-4, and 3-2.

So, the Habs have a history of netting a lot of pucks against the Knights. Because of this, I’ll be betting on the Habs to cover the puck line +1.5 (-118) on Monday Knight and thinking real hard about taking them to win the series outright.

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